The Research Problem
Food insecurity remains one of the world’s most pressing challenges, with over 700 million people undernourished, the majority of whom live in the Global South countries (e.g. Nigeria). The food crisis is set to worsen under the twin pressures of accelerating climate change and socio-economic shifts. By 2050, the Global South is projected to host two billion new urban consumers who will demand advanced diets, putting pressure on a shrinking arable land base. Moreover, climate change is destabilizing agricultural systems by reducing crop suitability and yields, particularly in rain-fed regions that sustain the world’s most vulnerable communities. This deepening vulnerability will heighten the Global South’s reliance on global trade networks that are becoming increasingly fragmented.
While the threats of an uncertain future are well-documented, existing research often examines these issues in isolation. What remains missing is a holistic understanding of how these uncertain climatic and socioeconomic forces interact to jointly shape future food supply–demand dynamics, particularly in Global South countries.
Research Design
Our project addresses a critical question: Can the Global South countries feed their populations under future socioeconomic and climate changes?
We approach this through three interconnected modules:
- Forecasting food supply:
The Asia Hub (CUHK & NTU) will employ advanced Geo-AI and machine learning techniques on satellite imagery to predict urban expansion and cropland conversion, producing land-use projection maps under different SSP-RCP scenarios. Then, the Africa Hub (Pretoria & Ghana) will use these projections for climate-crop models to simulate how climate patterns, land availability, and management practices affect yields of key crops.
- Projecting food demand:
The Canada-UK Hub (Alberta & Exeter) will lead the food demand analysis under different socioeconomic scenarios. This work will model how rising incomes and urbanization lead to dietary shifts, including higher demand for meat and processed foods.
- Integration and trade dynamics:
Led by CUHK, all hubs will collaboratively integrate supply and demand projections to identify food deficits. The Canada-UK Hub (Alberta & Exeter) will incorporate global agricultural trade models to further assess how international trade flows might mitigate or exacerbate regional food deficits. We will produce a series of maps pinpointing future food risk hotspots and translate key findings into tailored policy briefs.
Project Objectives
Our ultimate goal is to identify food risk hotspots, providing evidence-based insights for targeted interventions towards SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Expected outcomes include 1-2 manuscripts ready for submission, open-access datasets, online maps, and policy briefs. WUN support is crucial to facilitate our cross-continental collaboration and analytical work, laying the foundation for a long-term research team.